BTC chart read
BTC chart read archive
Scheduled reads of the BTC 1h and 4h charts by a fixed rule and a language model, graded at +4 h, +12 h and +24 h. Information only.
Updated 7 Nov 2026, 04:02 UTC
Direction calls withdrawn on 31 Oct 2026: in the pre-registered test no model beat a constant range answer at +4 h, +12 h or +24 h. Reads from that date, and any read not yet graded at +24 h, show no call. Earlier graded calls stay below as the record.
Direction hit rate against chance
prompt cr-v4-smc · same reads at every horizon
The AI's direction does not beat a constant "range" answer at any horizon (AI vs always range: 4h 55.3% vs 87.0% · 12h 50.7% vs 68.5% · 24h 41.7% vs 54.5%). Read its calls as commentary, not a forecast.
| AI | 4h 119/215 (55.3%) · 12h 108/213 (50.7%) · 24h 88/211 (41.7%) |
|---|---|
| Same calls by chance | 4h 56.6% · 12h 52.7% · 24h 47.9% |
| Always range | 4h 187/215 (87.0%) · 12h 146/213 (68.5%) · 24h 115/211 (54.5%) |
| Rules | 4h 93/215 (43.3%) · 12h 107/213 (50.2%) · 24h 100/211 (47.4%) |
| Last-24h trend | 4h 129/215 (60.0%) · 12h 115/213 (54.0%) · 24h 87/211 (41.2%) |
| AI bullish/bearish only | 4h 25/110 (22.7%) · 12h 35/108 (32.4%) · 24h 32/107 (29.9%) |
| AI by horizon | 4h 144/215 (67.0%) · 12h 109/213 (51.2%) · 24h 86/211 (40.8%) |
| AI by horizon, by chance | 4h 68.5% · 12h 53.0% · 24h 49.4% |
| Days | 4h 47 · 12h 47 · 24h 47 |
| 24h halves | AI 51.4% (n=105) then 32.1% (n=106) · by chance 51.9% then 46.5% · always range 60.0% then 49.1% |
Veto bar not met: 56.7% at n=60 (needed 60% and +5 pp over both baselines)
Same calls by chance: the hit rate of a reader making the same mix of bullish, bearish and range calls with no link to what BTC did next.
By date (UTC)
49 days · last 90
- 7 Nov 20261 read
- 6 Nov 20265 reads
- 5 Nov 20265 reads
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- 18 Sep 20264 reads